A letter from 2020...

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Listen, I've got to warn you before it's too late - you're studying the wrong subject!

Here in 2020, Microsoft, and the PC is dead. It seems almost beyond belief that in your age, people were spending money to actually own a computer - and software, even, when today we just connect to Google for free on tiny little disposable terminals that come as part of the ISP's connection package...

Think about it for a second. Why would anyone waste resources on owning any of this stuff, when Google can offer it to you through your broadband connection for zero cost, with total data security, and with your desktop guaranteed free of viruses and all the other nonsense you had to put up with? Not to mention how much quieter the world is without all those PCs whistling away in the background (and cooler)...

 

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Your still using broadband?
Im on earth-net now, internet straight through our own planet

 

AAAAhahahaha! Total data security... oh that's rich!!! hahahaha!!! Oh, man, that's funny.

Guess I'll be keeping my PC for years to come.

 

Come on, Michael - they probably promised to duplicate our data across no less than 3 data-centres across the globe - safe from almost anything except global nuclear war and they'll keep it encrypted andthey promised not to look at it!

 

Interesting. Right now, I'm reading a book called Devices of the Soul and in part, it describes how each generation thinks that technological advances will solve all the next generation's problems. Facinating book. I'm doing a review of it when I'm done.

 

Heeheehee! Anyone remember "Trusted Computing"? Ah, what a riot!!!

 

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
- Popular Mechanics, 1949

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."
The editor in charge of business books for Prentice-Hall, 1957

"But what...is it good for?"
Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of DEC

''Time has a funny way of kicking you in the arse when you least expect it''
shambles, speaking from 2020, with the benefit of hindsight

Sorry, why was it so funny, again?

 

'Devices of the Soul' looks right up my street. I'll look forward to seeing your review.

 

When I re-read this, it struck me that I might have annoyed everyone (again). Sorry if I did - it wasn't meant.
So, either this is an uninteresting subject and no-one can be bothered, or it is interesting and I need to push it a bit. Or, we're all very busy. I won't know until someone says...

Global Warming - by introducing centralised data processing and storage the IT industry could make quite a contribution to reducing carbon emissions. A million PCs on standby most of the time could be replaced by a centralised, shared bank of processors of maybe half the size, with savings in energy consumption, maintenance and manufacturing costs. this is a bit like the debate around public and private transport, isn't it? Maybe our American cousins would have a culturally different view on the value of this, as compared to europeans?

At the moment, a big impediment is communication speed. I reckon as new, fast, fibre networks expand and improve, this may become less of a problem... Or will it?

Security already laughed out of court by BosonMichael - but is he right? It might be in the interests of a company providing data storage and processing to keep themselves ignorant of the information they are storing. If they don't know what it is, they can't be sued. True security is an illusion anyway - the American government, and probably others, is everywhere. Many people already use on-line storage for backup purposes. It is only a short step to using it for almost all storage isn't it? Plus, if your house burns down, your data is safe somewhere else...

The PC might not seem so attractive to the average user in the face of small, quiet, low-energy devices that reliably connect to the net and a host of on-line services. A user might be attracted to a desktop environment that is always fully-patched and free of nasties. And cheap.

Who knows what else might happen between now and 2020? Quantum Computing anyone? It might require considerable amounts of liquid nitrogen to work. Possibly not something you would want in your home, but a big company might find it economic to provide extremely fast processing services to subscribers down the phone line...

If this isn't a realistic vision, what is? What else might happen in the next 15 years? Any ideas?

 

OI!

I use Trusted Computing today for my anti-spam...

Oh, wait a minute - no - I use Trusted SOURCE from SECURE Computing...

I guess, in hindsight, SC could have come up with something better than a portal that invokes memories of such a hated, misguided technology. Every time I look at the portal I get a chill down my spine

 

Forget it! I missed an earlier thread - this has already been done recently. Sorry.

 

Mine too - I'll probably buy it and read it this weekend. I'm laid up with the goddamn flu, so I'll try and send the missus out to get it.

Anyone read 'The Age of Spiritual Machines' by Ray Kurzweil? It's a book about the rise of intelligent machines and how/whether we will be able to cope with them (ahem) 'living' alongside us.

Highly recommended

 

Looks like another winner to me... I'd be very happy to have a non-human neighbour - as long as she/he/it didn't play loud hip-hop every hour of the day and night...

 

Now this is very different from your last post. This one opens up the possibility of a constructive debate on 'the big picture' regarding the future of computing. lets not go there with the other one...

Calm down - some people round here have jobs! If I wasn't stuck at home with a SERIOUS-ass case of flu I wouldn't be lazing around in bed with me lappy wasting time posting to philisophical debates about Google, MS and centralisation of global data!

This just removes the onus from manufacturers to make more power-efficient PCs, and also from owners to actually turn the damn things off. Until we start taking responsibility for the environmental future of the planet ourselves - and force corporations into doing likewise, we'll just be papering over the cracks.

Increased speeds of communication will bring their own problems. Anyone who has ever gone through a capacity management process will tell you - the more bandwidth you have, the more it will be used. We're talking about upgrading to a 100Mb connection to the putside world at work - and people laughed at me the other day when i said that it would be obsolete by 2012.

The AMERICAN government? Don't kid yourself mate - the BRITISH government is far, far more intrusive into people's lives than the US government is. We're probably the most spied on people on the face of the Earth. And don't get carried away with the idea that Google is your friend, whereas MS is your enemy. This might sound difficult to believe, but I actually trust M$ more than I do Google. In fact, Google and their 'interesting' privacy policies plain creep me out.

Ah - but where would the fun in that be? Any geek ever had to use a thin client at work and been 'enthused' by it? I rest my case...

I'd LOVE liquid nitrogen in my home. Not sure it would be permitted by government regulators, but can you imagine how wicked cool it would be to re-enact Terminator 2 in your kitchen when one of your guests pisses you off?

Ahhh - who knows? People who have predicted the future in public have always, without exception, been left with egg on their face. Personally I don't believe Quantum Computing will ever take off, but I'm sure some 12 year old kid will dig this quote up and laugh at me in 20 years' time

 

Ah - that helps. I thought it might be more interesting to be provocative than just pose the questions. But I won't do it again... Probably. And genuinely, I just wanted to check out if I'd been misread...

I'm not a great fan of Google either, but most non-geeks I think, don't care too much about who reads their data - unless they're trying to hide porn, of course. I reckon most people just want to know their pictures and letters and things are safe...

I'm not so sure about the responsibility thing. You couldn't argue that cold cathode lightbulbs are not as useful as remembering to switch the lights off when you leave... This is more like the terminal server thing, isn't it? As you say, not loved by geeks as a user, but pretty good for the average user (and much less hassle for the woman in charge of the network)?

And of course you are right about bandwidth...

 

Overall, I agree with Zeb. No sense in my commenting further, really. Besides, I *really* don't want to get started on the whole "humans responsible for global warming" thing.

If users don't care about who reads their data, then that's their decision. They will be the masters of their own misfortune when they pile their eggs in that basket. If they truly don't care, then it truly won't matter, right? Well... until they find out they DO care, but were sharing their files offline "just because everyone else was", and it was the "cool thing to do".

 

BosonMichael - If you don't want to get into it, dont. To be honest, I am completely happy with the fact that you and stand at opposite ends of the spectrum. Why don't we just take it as read?